After the largest fall in GDP since the end of the Second World War, 2010 will almost certainly mark a return to macro-economic growth. A return to growth, however, should not be a signal for marketers to dust off their plans dated 'September 2008'. Whilst the economy may begin to grow again, many of the variables that affect spending have changed significantly, and their effect will be felt in 2010 and beyond.
The decade and a half that preceded the recession was characterised by almost uniquely favourable conditions for consumer spending, with low inflation, labour market stability, easy access to credit and unprecedented willingness to spend on items that would have previously been considered non-essential. Tighter household budgets and greater reticence to take on debt will result in a smaller pie for businesses to compete for in the foreseeable future.
In this context maintaining and growing market share will be more trying than ever, as demanding consumers still want it better, faster, shinier and tastier. What the recession has done, however, is add savviness to the bow of many consumers, who no longer equate spending less with getting less.
Despite the challenges brands face in 2010, there is room for optimism. Consumerism in the UK has significant social, cultural and economic importance, and consumers want to look forward and aspire. They will do so, however, with a sober positivity influenced by the events of late 2008 and 2009. Brands have an opportunity to lead this new mindset, employing a positive, forward-looking tone that never sounds flippant or shallow - characteristics that would seem out of step with a nation putting the pieces back together.